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Tropical Storm Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018
500 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018

...ROSA BRINGING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, SONORA, AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 116.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was
located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 116.7 West.  Rosa is
moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and northern
Baja California peninsula later today and then move across the
peninsula into the northern Gulf of California tonight.  Rosa's
remnants are then expected to move across the Desert Southwest on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast through tonight while Rosa approaches and
moves over the northern Baja California peninsula.  Rosa is expected
to dissipate over northwestern Mexico or the southwestern United
States by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are beginning to spread over
the coast in portions of the warning area.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late this afternoon
or tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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