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Hurricane Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018

...ROSA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT STILL BRING FLOODING RAINS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 118.4W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 118.4 West.  Rosa is moving
toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h).  This general
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and northern
Baja California peninsula on Monday. Rosa's remnants will then move
across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Rosa is expected to become a tropical storm by this evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 982 mb (29.00 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Over the next few days, Rosa is expected to produce the
following total rainfall accumulations:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding
and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in
mountainous terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday morning.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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