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Hurricane Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018

...FLOODING RAINS FROM ROSA EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 118.9W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.  Additional watches or warnings may be required on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 118.9 West.  Rosa is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue through Sunday morning.  A north-northeastward motion is
expected to begin on Sunday and continue through Tuesday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and
northern Baja California peninsula on Monday.  Rosa's remnants will
then move quickly across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Steady weakening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Rosa is expected to become a tropical storm late Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Between late Sunday and the middle of next week, Rosa is
expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding
and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in
mountainous terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday morning.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California during this weekend
and early next week.  These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN