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Hurricane Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018

...FLOODING RAINS FROM ROSA EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 118.9W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Pacific Coast of the Baja California Peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula should monitor the progress of Rosa.  Additional watches
and warnings may be required this evening or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 118.9 West.  Rosa is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through tonight.  A turn toward the
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected on
Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the
central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Rosa is expected to start weakening tonight, becoming a
tropical storm by late Sunday or Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Between late Sunday and the middle of next week, Rosa is
expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding
and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in
mountainous terrain.

SURF:  Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the Baja California peninsula, and
southern California during this weekend and early next week.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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