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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rosa Advisory Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018

...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS DEBRIS FLOWS AND
LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 114.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and
northwestern Sonora should continue to monitor the progress of Rosa.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rosa was
located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 114.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17
km/h).  This motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
today.  On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will move across
the Baja California peninsula and into the northern Gulf of
California this morning.  Rosa's remnants are then expected to move
across the Desert Southwest by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast and Rosa is expected to become a
remnant low over northern Mexico or the southwestern United States
later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall
accumulations into Wednesday:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.

WIND:  Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are possible over the
central portions of the Baja California peninsula this morning,
especially over higher elevations.

SURF:  Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through today.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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