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Tropical Storm Rosa Advisory Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018
800 PM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018

...CENTER OF ROSA PASSING NORTH OF ISLA CEDROS AND APPROACHING
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SONORA,
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 115.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was
located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 115.3 West.  Rosa is
moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with an increase in forward speed tonight and
Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will be near the
coast of the Baja California peninsula within the warning area
during the next few hours and then move across the peninsula into
the northern Gulf of California.  Rosa's remnants are then expected
to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast through tonight while Rosa approaches and
moves over the northern Baja California peninsula.  Rosa is expected
to become a remnant low over the southwestern United States on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday morning:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.  On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will be near
the coast of the Baja California peninsula within the warning area
during the next several hours and then move across the peninsula
into the northern Gulf of California later tonight.  Rosa's remnants
are then expected to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring over the coast
in portions of the warning area.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area tonight and Tuesday morning.

SURF:  Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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