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Tropical Storm Rosa Advisory Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018
800 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018

...ROSA NEARING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHILE BRINGING HEAVY
RAINS AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SONORA, AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 116.5W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was
located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 116.5 West. Rosa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and
northern Baja California peninsula later today and then move across
the peninsula into the northern Gulf of California tonight.  Rosa's
remnants are then expected to move across the Desert Southwest on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.  Weakening is
forecast through tonight while Rosa approaches and moves over the
northern Baja California peninsula.  Rosa is expected to become a
remnant low over the southwestern United States on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are spreading over the coast in
portions of the warning area.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area by late this afternoon or tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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