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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rosa Advisory Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018
200 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018

...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...
...FLOODING, DEBRIS FLOWS, AND LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 117.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was
located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 117.0 West. Rosa is
moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and
northern Baja California peninsula later today and then move
across the peninsula into the northern Gulf of California tonight.
Rosa's remnants are then expected to move across the Desert
Southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast through tonight while
Rosa approaches and moves over the northern Baja California
peninsula.  Rosa is expected to dissipate over northwestern Mexico
or the southwestern United States by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by later this morning.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late this afternoon
or tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN