ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rosa Advisory Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018

...HEAVY RAINS FROM ROSA APPROACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...
...FLOODING, DEBRIS FLOWS, AND LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 117.6W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was
located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 117.6 West.  Rosa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and
northern Baja California peninsula on Monday and then move across
the peninsula into the northern Gulf of California Monday night.
Rosa's remnants will then move across the Desert Southwest on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast through Monday
night while Rosa approaches and moves over the northern Baja
California peninsula.  Rosa is expected to dissipate over
northwestern Mexico or the southwestern United States by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday morning.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday or
Monday night.

SURF:  Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN