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BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018

...ROSA EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 118.1W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 118.1 West.  Rosa is moving
toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h).  This general
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and northern
Baja California peninsula on Monday.  Rosa's remnants will then move
across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Rosa is expected to become a tropical storm by this evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  From late Sunday through Wednesday Rosa is expected to
produce the following total rainfall accumulations:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday morning.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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