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Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018

...ROSA WEAKER BUT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING RAINS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 118.6W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.  Additional watches or warnings may be required later this
morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 118.6 West.  Rosa is moving
toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A north-northeastward
motion is expected to begin later today and continue through
Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach
the central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday.
Rosa's remnants will then move quickly across the Desert Southwest
on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Rosa is expected to become a tropical storm by this
evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Over the next few days, Rosa is expected to produce the
following total rainfall accumulations:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding
and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in
mountainous terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday morning.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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