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Hurricane ROSA


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BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...FLOODING RAINS FROM ROSA EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 118.9W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch
along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta
Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along
the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.  Additional watches or warnings may be required on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 118.9 West.  Rosa is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue through Sunday morning.  A north-northeastward motion
is expected to begin on Sunday and continue through Tuesday.  On
the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central
and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday.  Rosa's remnants
will then move quickly across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Rosa is expected to become a tropical
storm late Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Between late Sunday and the middle of next week, Rosa is
expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding
and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in
mountainous terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday morning.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California during this weekend
and early next week.  These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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