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Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018
200 AM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018

...ROSA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 118.2W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern and central Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of Rosa. A Tropical Storm Watch could
be required for portions of western Baja California later this
morning.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 118.2 West. Rosa is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue today.  A turn toward the north-northeast with
an increase in forward speed is expected on Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Rosa will be approaching central and northern
Baja California on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
72 hours, and Rosa is expected to become a tropical storm by late
Sunday or early Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Between late Sunday and the middle of next week, Rosa is
expected to produce rainfall amounts of:

3 to 6 inches with isolated totals to 10 inches from Baja California
into northwestern Sonora
2 to 4 inches with isolated totals to 6 inches in the Mogollon Rim
of Arizona
1 to 2 inches with isolated totals to 4 inches elsewhere across the
Desert Southwest, central Rockies, and Great Basin.

These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding
and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in
mountainous terrain.

SURF:  Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the Baja California Peninsula, and
southern California during this weekend.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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