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HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202018
0900 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS
MORNING.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 118.8W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE  70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 118.8W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 118.9W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.8N 118.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.5N 117.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.3N 116.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 30.6N 114.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 37.2N 110.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 118.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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