ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 26 2018 Rosa is undergoing rapid intensification. Rosa's inner core has quickly consolidated, indicated by a 1134 UTC SSMI/S image that showed a solid mid-level ring with a strong well-developed banding feature in the south semicircle. The lower frequency image from the pass indicated a small break in the north portion, probably due to the drier air and northeasterly shear that had been inhibiting the cyclone's cloud pattern last night. Based on the conventional and microwave imagery presentation, the initial intensity is raised to 65 kt. Rosa should continue on this fast strengthening trend during the next 12 hours or so. Afterward, further intensification, at a slower pace, is expected during the next couple of days. Through the remaining portion of the forecast, gradual weakening is expected as a result of decreasing sea surface temperatures, increasing southwesterly vertical shear, and an invading stable, more drier, marine layer air mass. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/9 kt, within the easterly mid-tropospheric flow produced by a ridge to the north of the hurricane. Around mid-period, the large-scale models show a weakness developing the in the aforementioned ridge in response to a mid-latitude trough approaching the southwest U.S. and Baja California peninsula. As a result of this synoptic pattern change, Rose should move northwestward Saturday and then north-northwestward Sunday. The large along and cross-track spread recognized in the guidance 24 hours ago has decreased significantly, increasing the forecast confidence some beyond 48 hours. The NHC forecast is fairly close to the previous one, and is based primarily on the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 16.1N 111.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 16.4N 112.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 16.6N 114.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 16.8N 116.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 17.3N 117.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 19.2N 119.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 22.0N 120.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 24.9N 119.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2018 12:11:13 UTC