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Tropical Depression Paul Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
800 PM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018

Active deep convection associated with Paul appears to have ceased a
little earlier today, shortly after 1900 UTC. At least one more
advisory will be issued just in case Paul makes an unexpected
comeback, but this seems unlikely due to the 24 deg C SSTs beneath
the cyclone. With no convection to sustain it, Paul will likely
gradually spin down over the next few days until dissipating
entirely by the weekend. Paul is now moving west with an initial
motion of 275/10 kt. Now that Paul's circulation has become very
shallow, it should continue to be steered generally westward to
west-southwestward by the low-level tradewind flow until dissipation
occurs in a few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 22.4N 126.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 22.6N 128.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  13/0000Z 22.7N 129.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  13/1200Z 22.8N 130.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/0000Z 22.7N 131.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/0000Z 22.3N 132.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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