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Tropical Depression Paul Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018

The center of Paul remains to the east of a small area of deep
convection; a consequence of persistently northeasterly shear.  The
initial wind speed is kept at 30 kt using a blend of the latest
Dvorak estimates.  Slow weakening is anticipated as Paul moves into
a stable, drier air mass and over cooler sea surface temperatures.
Most of the global models suggest deep convection will cease
tomorrow, and remnant low status is indicated at that time.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/10
kt.  A slow turn toward the west is forecast in 36 hours as the
weakening cyclone becomes shallow and is steered by the low-level
easterly tradewind flow.  The southward model trend from the
previous forecast continues this cycle, and the NHC forecast is
adjusted in that direction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 22.3N 124.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 22.5N 125.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 22.8N 127.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  13/0000Z 23.1N 129.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/1200Z 23.2N 129.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/1200Z 23.0N 131.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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