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Tropical Depression Paul Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018
The center of Paul remains to the east of a small area of deep
convection; a consequence of persistently northeasterly shear. The
initial wind speed is kept at 30 kt using a blend of the latest
Dvorak estimates. Slow weakening is anticipated as Paul moves into
a stable, drier air mass and over cooler sea surface temperatures.
Most of the global models suggest deep convection will cease
tomorrow, and remnant low status is indicated at that time.
The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/10
kt. A slow turn toward the west is forecast in 36 hours as the
weakening cyclone becomes shallow and is steered by the low-level
easterly tradewind flow. The southward model trend from the
previous forecast continues this cycle, and the NHC forecast is
adjusted in that direction.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 22.3N 124.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 22.5N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 22.8N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 13/0000Z 23.1N 129.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/1200Z 23.2N 129.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1200Z 23.0N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
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