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Tropical Storm PAUL


Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
800 AM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018

Paul continues to have its low-level center displaced on the
northeast side of the main area of deep convection.  This
convection is not well organized and there is little or no evidence
of banding features.  The current intensity estimate remains 35 kt,
which is a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB
along with an ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS.  Over the next few
days, Paul will be moving into a drier air mass and over a cooler
ocean.  This should cause weakening, and the system if forecast to
degenerate into a remnant low in 72 hours, if not sooner

There is significant spread in the center fixes, so the initial
motion is a rather uncertain 320/9 kt.  A gradual turn to the
west-northwest is forecast due to a mid-level ridge the north of
Paul.  Later in the period, the increasingly shallow cyclonic
circulation should turn more to the west, following the low-level
flow.  The official forecast is similar to the previous NHC track
an close to the correct model consensus, HCCA.


INIT  10/1500Z 20.8N 120.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 21.4N 121.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 21.9N 123.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 22.3N 125.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 22.7N 126.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  13/1200Z 23.5N 129.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/1200Z 23.8N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/1200Z 24.0N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Pasch