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Tropical Storm PAUL


Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018

Paul is looking very ragged this evening.  The low-level center has
become completely exposed, with the nearest deep convection
displaced about 70 n mi to its southwest.  The intensity has been
held at 40 kt, deferring to earlier ASCAT data which showed a wide
swath of 35-40 kt winds.  Given the structure of Paul, any
intensification seems very unlikely, so gradual weakening is now
forecast through the end of the period.  By day 4, a combination of
cold SSTs and dry, stable air should cause the cyclone to become a
remnant low.  The new NHC forecast shows faster weakening than
before, and is now closer to the intensity consensus through 120 h.

The low-level swirl that makes up most of Paul has wobbled a bit
this evening, but a longer-term motion estimate is still
northwestward, or 320/9 kt.  The global models are in good agreement
that Paul will continue northwestward for another day or so, before
gradually turning westward as it weakens and eventually becomes a
remnant low.  No significant changes were made to the track
forecast, which remains very near the multi-model consensus
throughout the forecast period.


INIT  10/0300Z 19.4N 119.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 20.4N 120.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 21.2N 121.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 21.9N 123.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 22.4N 125.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  13/0000Z 23.1N 128.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  14/0000Z 23.5N 130.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/0000Z 23.5N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Zelinsky