Tropical Storm PAUL (Text)


Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018

ASCAT data from shortly before 1800 UTC indicated that Paul was
slightly stronger than previously estimated, with several 35-40 kt
vectors observed in the southeast quadrant.  Based on this data, the
initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt.  In an effort to
maintain some continuity, and since the ASCAT data nearly supports
45 kt, very slight strengthening is still forecast over the next 24
h, but little change in strength is realistically expected.
Beginning in a day or two, a combination of dry, stable air, and
decreasing SSTs should cause Paul to gradually weaken, eventually
causing the cyclone to become a remnant low by the end of the
forecast period.  The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower
than the previous one, but is still near the high end of the
intensity guidance. It is certainly possible Paul could weaken
sooner than currently indicated.

Paul has sped up slightly but is still moving northwestward, now at
around 9 kt.  Almost no change has been made to the official track
forecast.  Paul should continue moving northwestward for the next
day or so, before gradually turning toward the west as the weakening
cyclone becomes increasingly steered by low-level easterly flow to
the north.  The track guidance is in reasonably good agreement
through about 72 h, at which point there are differences mainly
related to how fast the cyclone will weaken.  The NHC forecast
remains close to HCCA and the other consensus aids.


INIT  09/2100Z 18.5N 118.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 19.5N 119.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 20.5N 120.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 21.4N 122.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 21.9N 124.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 22.8N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z 23.5N 130.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 23.5N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Zelinsky


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2018 12:11:07 UTC