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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018

The depression has changed little during the past several hours. The
system remains sheared with the center located near the eastern edge
of the main area of deep convection.  This asymmetric cloud pattern
is due to about 15 kt of east-northeasterly shear. The satellite
intensity estimates range between 30-35 kt, so the initial intensity
is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The depression should have some
opportunity to strengthen during the next 2 to 3 days while it
remains over warm waters and in a relatively moist environment.
However, the global models suggest that the shear may not let up
much during that time period, so only slow strengthening is
anticipated.  Beyond a few days, the water temperatures beneath the
system are forecast to fall below 26 deg C.  These unfavorable
oceanic conditions and a drier and more stable airmass should cause
a weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than
the previous one, but still lies at the high end of the model
guidance.

The depression is still moving westward but at a slower pace than
before.  The models all show the system turning northwestward
overnight and maintaining that motion during the next few days as it
is steered by a weakening mid-level ridge. Once the system moves
over cooler waters and becomes shallow, a turn to the west-northwest
is forecast as the cyclone is steered by the low-level flow.  The
new NHC track is a little north of the previous one to come into
better agreement with the latest consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 16.1N 117.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 17.0N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 18.3N 119.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 19.6N 120.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 20.5N 122.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 21.7N 125.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  13/0000Z 22.8N 129.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  14/0000Z 23.7N 132.1W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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