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Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
800 AM PDT Wed Sep 05 2018

Olivia is still slowly weakening, with a continued erosion of the
eyewall convection in the northwestern quadrant.  The various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are now in
the 90-100 kt range, and the initial intensity is reduced to 95 kt
given the decay in the cloud pattern since the previous advisory.

Olivia is currently experiencing moderate easterly shear, but the
guidance suggests this should decrease during the next 12-24 h.
Therefore, the major influences on the intensity should be gradually
decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track and
entrainment of dry air.  The intensity guidance is in good agreement
that Olivia should weaken through the forecast period, and based on
this the new intensity forecast is an update of the previous
forecast.  There is a chance that Olivia could weaken faster than
currently forecast during the first 24 h if the current convective
trend continues.

The initial motion is 280/11.  There is no change to the forecast
philosophy from the previous advisory, and there are only minor
adjustments to the forecast track.  A building subtropical ridge
over the eastern Pacific to the north of Olivia should induce a
general west-northwestward motion with increasing forward speed
during the next several days.  Toward the end of the forecast
period, global models continue to show a stronger ridge that would
turn Olivia back to a westward motion.  The track guidance is in
good agreement with this scenario, although the UKMET and the UKMET
ensemble mean show a motion to the north of the other models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 17.1N 122.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 17.4N 124.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 18.1N 126.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 19.0N 129.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 19.9N 132.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 21.5N 137.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 22.0N 142.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 22.5N 147.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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