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Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 04 2018

A recent SSMIS overpass indicated a banding eye inner core
structure with improved deep convective outer bands over the
southern semicircle.  A 0432 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass was
used to adjust the wind radii for this advisory package.  A blend
of the subjective satellite intensity estimates support a slight
initial intensity increase to 70 kt.

Olivia has about 24-36 hours or so remaining over warm SSTs with
marginally favorable upper wind conditions.  Therefore strengthening
is forecast for the next day or so, similar to the HCCA and IVCN
consensus models.  After that time, The cyclone is expected to
traverse slightly cooler oceanic surface temperatures, and gradual
weakening is indicated through day 5.  The NHC forecast is based on
the above consensus models and is similar to the previous advisory.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/10 kt.  A
building subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific is forecast
to induce a westward and west-northwestward motion with
increasing forward speed during the next several days.  The model
guidance is tightly packed on this solution, and the latest NHC
track forecast is basically just an update of the previous
prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 16.9N 117.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 17.0N 118.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 17.2N 120.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 17.7N 123.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 18.4N 125.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 20.1N 131.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 21.9N 137.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 23.0N 142.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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