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Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
900 PM MDT Sun Sep 02 2018

Olivia remains sheared, however the deep convection has inched a
little closer to the center this evening.  The latest satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 35 and 45 kt,
respectively.  Those estimates, along with the earlier ASCAT data,
support maintaining an initial intensity of 40 kt.  The tropical
cyclone is expected to remain under the influence of moderate
northeasterly shear during the next several days, however, most of
the intensity guidance insists on some intensification while the
system moves over warm waters.  The new NHC intensity forecast is
slightly higher than the previous advisory through 24 hours, but it
is similar to the earlier forecast by showing Olivia attaining
hurricane status in a couple of days.  There is a large difference
between the latest statistical guidance and the dynamical hurricane
models, with the latter being much more aggressive in strengthening
Olivia.  Given the current structure of the storm and the lower
statistical guidance, the NHC forecast splits the difference and is
close to the consensus guidance.  Later in the period cooler waters
and a more stable airmass should cause the system to weaken.

Olivia is moving slowly west-northwestward or 295/4 kt. The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous NHC
advisory.  The tropical storm should turn westward as a ridge
builds to the north of the system within the next couple of days.
After midweek, Olivia should turn back toward the west-northwest as
it reaches the western portion of the ridge.  There continues to be
some spread in the track guidance, and the NHC forecast is once
again near the model consensus to account for the differences.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 17.1N 113.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 17.3N 114.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 17.6N 115.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 17.8N 117.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 18.0N 119.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 19.3N 123.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 20.8N 129.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 22.3N 135.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

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