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Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
900 AM MDT Sun Sep 02 2018

Olivia is a sheared cyclone with the low-level center well removed
to the north of the convection. If it wasn't for the earlier
scatterometer, it would be difficult to assign an intensity of 40
kt at this time. In fact, Dvorak numbers do not support such wind
speeds. For continuity reasons, however, this is the assigned
intensity until new data become available.

Olivia is currently embedded in a hostile shear environment, but the
global models forecast a change to a more favorable upper-level wind
pattern soon.  On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for Olivia to
begin strengthening tonight or early Monday, and reach hurricane
status in about 36 hours. This forecast is not different from the
previous one and follows the intensity consensus IVCN.

The circulation continues to be elongated, making it more difficult
to estimate the initial motion. The best estimate is toward the
northwest or 315 degrees at 6 kt. Most of the global models develop
a ridge to the north of the cyclone, and this flow pattern will
force Olivia to turn toward the west-northwest and west with some
increase in forward speed.  Track guidance is clustered, and is
fairly consistent with the turn to the west. The NHC forecast
continues to be very close to the corrected consensus HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 17.0N 112.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 17.7N 113.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 18.2N 114.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 18.2N 115.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 18.3N 117.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 19.0N 121.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 20.5N 126.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 22.0N 132.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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