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Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN-E


Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 01 2018

Recent microwave data and GOES-16 shortwave infrared imagery have
indicated that the depression consists of a broad low-level
circulation with the center exposed to the northeast of the
associated deep convection.  Since the system is still rather
disorganized, and T-numbers have not increased, the maximum winds
remain 30 kt.  Based on the 00Z suite of global models, it may be
another day or two before the depression becomes organized enough to
start strengthening.  In fact, the GFS and ECMWF models in
particular show the center jumping around or re-forming during the
next 24 hours, with more significant deepening not occurring until
after 48 hours.  Once the cyclone is able to consolidate, a
more robust intensification phase should occur since it will be
located over warm waters and in a relatively low-shear environment.
To account for the possible slow initial organization process, the
NHC intensity forecast has been decreased during the first 3 days or
so and is a little below the intensity consensus.  After day 3, the
official forecast is largely unchanged from the previous one and is
closer to the intensity consensus and the HCCA model.

The depression still appears to be moving west-northwestward, or
285/9 kt, but that motion is uncertain given the poor organization.
As noted above, the center could jump around or re-form during the
next 24 hours, but overall the cyclone should move slowly toward the
west-northwest for the next 2 days, south of the subtropical ridge.
After that time, the ridge is expected to strengthen, which should
cause the system to move faster toward the west on days 3 through 5.
Since the model trackers are bouncing around so much during the
first 2 days of the forecast period, the NHC track forecast is not
much different from the previous forecast to maintain continuity,
although it is a little slower to be in line with the latest HCCA


INIT  01/0900Z 14.7N 109.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 15.2N 110.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 15.6N 111.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 16.0N 111.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 16.4N 113.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 16.6N 115.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 17.0N 119.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 18.0N 123.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

Forecaster Berg