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Hurricane Norman Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018
200 PM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Visible satellite images continues to depict a fairly symmetric
hurricane with a ragged eye, however, a 1615 UTC SSMIS microwave
overpass indicated that the eye was open over the southeastern
portion of the circulation.  Dvorak data T-numbers are slowly
decreasing, and a consensus of the various objective and subjective
Dvorak CI-numbers support lowering the initial intensity to 90 kt.
Norman is forecast to move over marginally warm SSTs and into a
drier mid-level environment during the next couple of days.  Since
the shear is expected to remain fairly low over the hurricane,
weakening is anticipated to be gradual through mid-week.   After
that time, a significant increase in southwesterly vertical wind
shear should cause a more rapid rate of filling.  The new forecast
is similar to the previous advisory and is a blend of the HFIP
corrected consensus model and the IVCN intensity consensus aid.

Norman is moving quickly westward or 280/17 kt.  The hurricane is
being steered by a large subtropical ridge to the north and it
should keep Norman on a westward heading with some decrease in
forward speed over the next couple of days.  A weakness in the
ridge near 150W should cause Norman to turn west-northwestward,
then northwestward after 72 hours.  There is still considerable
spread in the model guidance as to exactly when and where the turn
will take place.  The NHC track forecast is again close to the
consensus models at the longer range, but the overall guidance
envelope changed little, so the updated NHC track forecast is
similar to the previous track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 19.5N 138.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 19.8N 141.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 20.1N 143.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 20.2N 146.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 20.4N 147.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 21.9N 150.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 24.6N 152.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 27.8N 155.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

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