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Hurricane NORMAN


Hurricane Norman Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 02 2018

Satellite images indicate that Norman is maintaining its strength
this evening.  The eye of the hurricane remains distinct and a ring
of cold cloud tops surrounds that feature.  However, the cloud tops
have been warming a little during the past few hours.  A blend of
the latest satellite intensity estimates supports holding the
initial wind speed at 115 kt.

Norman is currently located over marginally warm 27 deg C SSTs and
it will be moving over slightly cooler waters during the next
several days. In addition, the global models show the hurricane
moving into an increasingly drier air mass and show a significant
increase in shear in 4 to 5 days.  All of these conditions suggest
that Norman should steadily weaken, and the NHC forecast follows the
trend in the model guidance.  This forecast is in best agreement
with the consensus models HCCA and IVCN.

Norman continues to move fairly quickly to the west-northwest, with
the latest initial motion estimate the same as before, 285/17.  This
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so while Norman
remains steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its
north-northeast.  After that time, a decrease in forward speed and
then a gradual turn to the northwest are predicted as Norman moves
near the edge of the ridge and approaches a significant weakness
caused by a large-scale trough.  The models agree on this overall
scenario, but they differ on the details of where and when Norman
makes the northwestward turn.  The NHC track forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope and is near the typically most
skillful aids, the consensus models.  Based on this forecast, Norman
is expected to cross into the central Pacific basin in 24 to 36


INIT  03/0300Z 18.6N 132.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 19.2N 135.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 19.9N 138.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 20.4N 141.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 20.7N 144.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 21.5N 148.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 23.4N 150.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 26.2N 153.2W   50 KT  60 MPH

Forecaster Cangialosi