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Hurricane NORMAN


Hurricane Norman Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018

Norman is steadily strengthening.  Recent microwave images indicate
that the hurricane now has a well-defined inner core with a banded
eye feature evident in that data.  The eye is not yet apparent in
geostationary images, but the convective pattern is improving in
organization and the cloud tops continue to become colder.  A blend
of the satellite intensity estimates at 0000 UTC supported an
initial intensity of 70 kt, and since the system continues to
become better organized, the initial wind speed for this advisory is
increased to 75 kt.  Now that Norman has an inner core, rapid
intensification is expected during the next 24 hours or so while the
hurricane remains in near ideal environmental conditions.  The SHIPS
rapid intensification indices are very high, and the NHC intensity
forecast remains near the upper end of the model guidance in the
short term.  Beyond a couple of days, an increase in shear
and slightly cooler waters should promote a gradual weakening trend.

Satellite images suggest that the forward speed of Norman has
slowed to 280/7 kt.  All of the models show a mid-level ridge
amplifying to the north of the tropical cyclone during the next few
days, and this should cause the hurricane to move westward or
west-southwestward during that time.  Thereafter, a turn back to the
west and then west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is
predicted as Norman moves closer to the western periphery of the
ridge.  The model guidance remains in fairly good agreement, and
the NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus aids.


INIT  30/0300Z 17.9N 116.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 18.0N 117.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  31/0000Z 18.0N 119.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  31/1200Z 17.5N 120.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 16.8N 122.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 16.0N 126.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 16.9N 130.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  04/0000Z 18.5N 136.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

Forecaster Cangialosi