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Tropical Storm Norman Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018
300 AM MDT Wed Aug 29 2018

Even though there has been a dearth of microwave imagery overnight,
Norman's infrared satellite signature has the look of a cyclone
ready to strengthen significantly over the next couple of days.
Banding continues to increase, with the convective canopy expanding
in nearly all quadrants.  Norman's initial intensity is set at 50
kt based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  Ocean
waters of nearly 30 degrees Celsius and low shear for the next
couple of days are offering an ideal environment for Norman to
rapidly intensify.  The various Rapid Intensification (RI) indices
continue to show high probabilities, and overall the new intensity
guidance is higher than the previous forecast during the first
36 hours.  Based on these numbers, the updated NHC intensity
forecast has been bumped upward, close to the Florida State
Superensemble and intensity consensus aids, but still not nearly as
high as the HWRF or HCCA models.  It wouldn't be surprising at all
for the forecast intensities to be increased further in subsequent
advisory packages, and Norman is likely to become a hurricane later
today.

Norman is moving westward, or 275/9 kt, to the south of the
subtropical ridge, which extends westward from northern Mexico.
The ridge is forecast to build westward during the next few days,
causing Norman to continue westward--or even west-southwestward--at
a fairly steady pace for the next 4-5 days.  Except for the GFS,
which appears to be a bit of a northern outlier, the remainder of
the track guidance is tightly clustered, at least for the first 3
days.  After that time, the overall guidance envelope has shifted
slightly northward, requiring a subtle northward adjustment of the
NHC official forecast by day 5.  This new forecast generally lies
closest to the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 17.5N 114.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 18.0N 117.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  31/0600Z 17.8N 120.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 16.7N 124.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  02/0600Z 16.0N 128.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  03/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

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