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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018
300 PM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018

The cloud pattern is a little better organized this afternoon with
numerous banding features, but the latest available microwave data
suggest that the cyclone does not have an inner core yet. Since the
satellite intensity estimates have not changed from earlier today,
the winds are kept at 30 kt in this advisory.

The cyclone is expected to continue within an environment of low
shear and high SSTs for the next several days. On this basis, the
NHC forecast calls for strengthening, and for the depression to
reach hurricane status in about 36 hours with additional
intensification thereafter. The HWRF is still the most aggressive
model and forecasts the depression to become a very strong
hurricane.  The official forecast follows the remainder of the
guidance, which supports a more modest intensification.

Based on satellite fixes, the initial motion is toward the
west-northwest or 295 degrees at 9 kt. The cyclone is located south
of a strong subtropical ridge which is forecast by the global models
to remain strong and expand westward. This flow pattern should force
the cyclone to turn more to west and even toward the west-southwest
during the next 5 days.  Since models are in good agreement with
this reasonable solution, the NHC forecast lies in the middle of the
guidance envelope, and very close to the HCCA corrected consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 17.5N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 18.0N 113.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 18.5N 115.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 18.5N 117.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 18.5N 119.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  31/1800Z 17.8N 123.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 16.5N 127.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  02/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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