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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018
900 AM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018

Since the previous scatterometer pass around 0430 UTC, the satellite
presentation has improved significantly. The cloud pattern now
consists of a couple of cyclonically curved convective bands, with
the center of the system located on the northeastern edge of a
circular area of thunderstorms, as indicated by a GMI microwave pass
at 1201 UTC. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are
T2.5 and T2.0, respectively, on the Dvorak scale, and on this basis,
advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression Sixteen-E with an
initial intensity of 30 kt.

The depression has plenty of time to intensify given that the
environmental conditions of warm ocean and light shear are expected
to prevail during the next 5 days. The NHC forecast calls for the
depression to become a hurricane in about 2 days with additional
strengthening thereafter. The forecast is very close to the
intensity consensus model, and follows the trend of most of the
guidance.

Since genesis has just occurred, the initial motion is somewhat
uncertain. The best estimate is toward the west-northwest or 295
degrees at 9 kt. The depression is currently located on the
southwestern edge of a subtropical high, and this flow pattern will
continue to steer the depression on the same general track during
the next day or two. After that time, the nose of the ridge is
expected to amplify, and will force the cyclone to turn toward the
west or even west-southwest. This is very consistent with the track
guidance, and the NHC forecast lies in between the HCCA corrected
consensus model and the other consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 17.1N 111.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 17.7N 112.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 18.4N 114.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 18.8N 116.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 18.9N 118.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  31/1200Z 18.5N 121.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  01/1200Z 17.5N 126.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  02/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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