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Tropical Depression Lane Discussion Number  57
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
500 AM HST Tue Aug 28 2018
 
Overnight GOES-15 fog product imagery along with a few VIIRS
images and a Monday evening SCATSAT pass show that the exposed low
level circulation center (LLCC) of Lane has started tracking
to the west-northwest, and has become increasingly elongated and
indistinct during the night. However, for the third night in a
row, despite very strong vertical wind shear estimated at 57 kt by
CIMSS, Lane managed to produce a substantial and persistent burst of
deep convection just to the northeast of the LLCC, which kept the
system classifiable for this cycle. Subjective Dvorak current
intensity estimates came in at 1.5/25 kt from HFO and SAB, and
2.0/30 kt from JTWC, and the latest CIMSS ADT has increased to
1.9/29 kt in response to the deep convection NE of the center. The
overnight ASCAT pass sampled only the eastern part of Lane's
circulation, but did find a small area of 30 kt winds there. We have
therefore maintained Lane as a 30 kt tropical depression for this
advisory.
 
With the anticipated turn toward the northwest now apparently
underway, the initial motion for this advisory is set at 290/9 kt.
Lane is now beginning to feel the influence of a strong low aloft
which water vapor imagery shows centered near 22N 172W. Model
guidance continues to show Lane being picked up by a developing
low-level trough induced by the upper trough, with the depression
expected to turn NW then NNW later today. The new forecast track is
very similar to the previous track, and remains on the left side of
the guidance envelope in best agreement with the ECMWF.
 
Very strong shear is forecast to continue along the forecast track
of Lane during the next couple of days. The new intensity forecast
anticipates that Lane will become a remnant low later today as
the LLCC continues to become less organized, and the current deep
convection will likely wane as it has during the past couple of
daytime periods. The remnant low will then be absorbed within 36
hours into a larger extratropical low forecast to develop farther to
the north.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 18.8N 168.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 20.0N 169.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  29/1200Z 21.8N 169.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jacobson
 
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