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Tropical Depression Lane Discussion Number 56
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 27 2018
The last visible Himawari images of the evening along with more
recent GOES-15 fog product images continue to depict the exposed low
level circulation center (LLCC) of Lane tracking westward. Infrared
imagery shows only small, scattered and short-lived puffs of deep
convection in the northern semicircle. These are currently located
from 50 nm NW to over 100 nm NE and E of the center. Subjective
Dvorak current intensity estimates came in at 2.0/30 kt from HFO and
JTWC, and 1.5/25 kt from SAB, while final T-numbers were 1.0 to 1.5
or 25 kt across the board. The latest CIMSS ADT is also 1.5/25 kt.
We have conservatively maintained Lane as a 30 kt tropical
depression for this advisory, which may be generous.
Initial motion for this advisory is set at 270/6 kt. A strong
lower/mid level ridge to the north of Lane has steered the cyclone
generally toward the WSW during the past couple of days. This will
be changing soon, as Lane continues to approach a strong low aloft
which water vapor imagery shows centered near 23N 172W. Model
guidance shows Lane being picked up by a developing low-level trough
induced by the upper trough, with the depression expected to turn NW
then NNW during the next 36 hours. The new forecast track is similar
to the previous track, and is on the left side of the guidance
envelope in best agreement with the ECMWF.
UW-CIMSS diagnoses almost 60 kt of vertical wind shear over Lane,
as confirmed by satellite animations which show the tops of any
deep convection that develops near the LLCC being quickly ripped
away to the northeast. Very strong shear is forecast to continue
along the forecast track of Lane during the next couple of days.
The intensity forecast anticipates that Lane will continue to
weaken, with the remnant low becoming absorbed within 48 hours into
a larger extratropical low forecast to develop farther to the north.
Unless Lane regains significant deep convection near the center
soon, it will likely be designated as a post-tropical remnant low
on Tuesday morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0900Z 18.4N 167.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 19.0N 168.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/0600Z 20.3N 168.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/1800Z 23.0N 169.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW