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Tropical Depression Lane Discussion Number  55
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
500 PM HST Mon Aug 27 2018
 
Visible imagery from Himawari continues to show an exposed low
level circulation center. The closest cold, high clouds associated
with Lane are over 90 nm northeast of the center. Subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates from HFO, SAB and JTWC were all 2.0/30 kt. The
initial intensity for this advisory has been lowered to 30 kt, and
Lane has been downgraded to a depression.
 
A strong east northeast to west southwest ridge north of Lane
has continued to steer the storm toward the west. The initial motion
for this advisory is 270/6 kt. Satellite water vapor loops show a
deep low aloft near 23N 172W. Southwest flow associated with this
low is producing strong southwest vertical wind shear over Lane. The
UM-CIMSS shear estimate was 51.2 kt. The low aloft is forecast to
induce a deepening north south surface trough along 170W. The
weakening circulation of Lane will become part of this trough and
turn toward the north northwest tonight.
 
Lane is forecast to weaken to a post-tropical remnant low within 24
hours. The remnant low will continue to weaken as a new
extratropical low forms to the northwest. The remnants of Lane will
become wrapped up into that low.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 18.5N 166.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 18.8N 167.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 19.5N 168.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/1200Z 20.9N 168.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/0000Z 22.0N 168.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Donaldson
 
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