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Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 53
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 AM HST Mon Aug 27 2018
Lane's low-level circulation center had been exposed for the better
part of the last 30 hours, as the cyclone remains in an environment
characterized by 40 kt of vertical wind shear. However, a recent
vigorous convective burst in the eastern semicircle has at least
partially obscured the low-level center, and convective banding has
increased to the southeast. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
trended up, but were still primarily 2.0/30 kt at the synoptic time,
while UW-CIMSS SATCON was near 35 kt. With the improved satellite
appearance since then, and since an ASCAT pass detected winds just
over 30 kt on Sunday, the initial intensity for this advisory is
increased to 35 kt, and Lane is once again a tropical storm.
The initial motion for this advisory is 270/7 kt, with Lane being
driven westward by a surface high to the distant northeast. This
motion will continue in the short-term, with Lane's forward motion
expected to diminish tonight as it reaches the southwestern edge of
the high. At the same time, increased interaction with an
amplifying mid-level low will likely lead to a deepening shear
profile, with the strong shear currently in the upper-levels
spreading to the mid-levels. This should be more effective in
interrupting Lane's low-level core, and Lane is expected to become a
post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday.
Lane is forecast to become an extratropical low later Tuesday into
Wednesday as it gets wrapped up into the circulation associated
with the mid-level low. This extratropical low could then bring
gale force winds to portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine
National Monument as it tracks north and northwest. The updated
track forecast has been shifted to the left of the previous,
especially in the later periods, to be better in line with GFEX. The
intensity forecast represents a blend of regional and global model
guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 18.9N 165.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 19.0N 166.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 19.6N 167.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/0000Z 21.0N 168.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1200Z 23.2N 169.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 30/1200Z 29.0N 174.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/1200Z 32.0N 177.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/1200Z 34.6N 180.0E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Birchard
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