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Tropical Depression Lane Discussion Number  49
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
500 AM HST Sun Aug 26 2018
 
Although a few thunderstorms have recently developed in Lane's
northern semicircle, the low-level circulation remains exposed.
The once powerful cyclone is in the process of becoming a
post-tropical remnant low, as it remains embedded in a hostile
environment characterized by 40-50 kt of vertical wind shear. The
initial intensity for this advisory has been lowered to 30 kt based
on decreasing Dvorak intensity estimates that are near 2.0/30 kt,
and an 0821Z ASCAT pass that detected winds of 30 kt, mainly in the
northern semicircle.
 
The initial motion for this advisory is 260/9 kt. A surface high to
the distant northeast will keep Lane moving generally toward the
west into Monday as it devolves into a post-tropical remnant low,
probably by later today or tonight. Once Lane becomes post-tropical,
redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is highly unlikely. A brief
slowing in forward speed is expected Monday night as the remnant
low reaches the southwestern edge of the high and begins to
interact with a developing mid-level low to its west. Assuming Lane
survives as a coherent feature until then, this interaction is
expected to lead to the development of an extratropical low by
Tuesday/Wednesday. This low could bring gale force winds to portions
of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument as it tracks north
and northwest around the middle of the week. The latest official
forecast track is close to the TVCE consensus while the intensity
forecast is supported by global model guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 19.1N 162.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 19.1N 163.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 19.1N 164.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/0000Z 19.5N 166.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/1200Z 20.2N 167.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/1200Z 24.5N 169.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  30/1200Z 29.5N 173.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  31/1200Z 34.0N 177.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard
 
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