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Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number  48
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 25 2018
 

After a burst of deep convection that started late last night and 
continued through this morning, the low-level circulation center 
(LLCC) of Lane became exposed this afternoon. The thunderstorms
were quickly sheared away from the center as Lane is embedded in an
area characterized by 40-50 kt of vertical wind shear. Subjective
Dvorak Data-T numbers were unavailable due to the lack of convection
near the center, but current intensities ranged from 2.0/30 kt to
2.5/35 kt. Given that we've seen these recently-exposed LLCCs
produce tropical-storm-force winds in the past, the initial
intensity is estimated to be 35 kt for this advisory. 

The initial motion for this advisory is 260/7 kt. Lane is being 
driven westward by the low-level trade wind flow supplied by a 
surface high to the distant northeast. Track guidance is in good 
agreement in the short term, with Lane tracking generally toward
the west through 36 hours. Thereafter, guidance spread increases 
somewhat but not dramatically, and generally shows a brief slowing 
in forward speed before an accelerated motion toward the northwest 
evolves. This occurs as Lane interacts with a developing mid-level 
low to its west. The updated track forecast is very close to the 
previous, and lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCE. 

With deep convection absent near Lane's center for several hours, 
the clock is ticking on Lane's status as a tropical cyclone. While 
the updated forecast anticipates that brief deep convective pulses 
will occasionally occur in association with Lane, these are not 
expected to develop over the center, and Lane is now expected to 
become a post-tropical remnant low by late Sunday. Thereafter, Lane 
is expected to track toward the west as a weak post-tropical
remnant low. Assuming Lane survives as a coherent feature, it is
then expected to interact with a developing low aloft and transition
to an extratropical low by Tuesday/Wednesday. This low could bring
gale force winds to portions of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands
around the middle of the week. 

Around 8 pm HST, Lane passed very close to NOAA buoy 51003, which 
reported a minimum pressure of 1005 mb and seas just below 12 feet. 
These data were used to fine tune the analysis.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0900Z 19.3N 161.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 19.4N 162.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 19.3N 163.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  27/1800Z 19.5N 165.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  28/0600Z 20.0N 166.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  29/0600Z 23.6N 168.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  30/0600Z 28.5N 172.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  31/0600Z 33.0N 177.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard
 
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