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Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number  46
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
1100 AM HST Sat Aug 25 2018
 
Bursts of deep convection continue to pulse near the circulation
center of Lane. Lightning has also been persistent near the core of
this deep convection. Visible satellite imagery shows the low level
circulation center is partially exposed on the southwest side of
the deepest convection. Based on the latest Dvorak fixes and the
latest satellite representation of Lane, we have lowered the
initial intensity to 45 knots. Wind radii were decreased based on
an overnight ASCAT pass.

Strong westerly shear of 30 to 40 kt continues to impact lane.
Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days due to
this strong shear persisting. This follows closely with ICON and
SHIPS guidance. Lane is forecast to weaken to a depression in about
36 hours and to a remnant low in about 72 hours. Assuming this low
survives, it may eventually become an extratropical gale low in the
vicinity of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands around days 4 and 5.

The latest motion for this advisory is 280/6 knots. Early morning
visible imagery combined with an AMSR pass at 1205Z confirmed that
Lane has made the long awaited turn toward the west. The current
track forecast has been shifted to the left through 48 hours, with
little change from days 3 through 5. This forecast closely follows
the HWRF, and lies close to the consensus models. There are only
subtle changes in the track forecast compared with the previous
forecast from days 2 through 5.

Based on the confirmation on the turn to the west as well as the
latest forecast track, all watches and warnings for the main
Hawaiian Islands have been discontinued.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Effects from tropical storms can and do extend well from the
center. Lingering moisture associated with Lane will continue to
bring persistent flooding rainfall across parts of the state. 
Locally gusty winds will continue to be accelerated over higher
terrain, through gaps, and where winds blow downslope. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
INIT  25/2100Z 19.7N 159.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 19.7N 160.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 19.5N 161.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 19.4N 163.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 19.7N 165.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 21.6N 167.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 25.5N 169.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  30/1800Z 30.4N 174.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Burke
 
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