ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 44 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 24 2018 The thunderstorms associated with Tropical Storm Lane are now far removed from the exposed low-level circulation center (LLCC). Most of this deep convection is in outer rain bands across the eastern and central Hawaiian Islands. Needless to say, severe flooding is occurring due to this, especially over the Big Island where over 40 inches of rain have fallen along parts of the windward sections. Lane continues to weaken, so taking a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates, we have lowered the initial intensity to 55 knots. The latest motion for this advisory is 335/3 knots. Lane is expected to continue weakening due to vertical wind shear of 25 to 30 knots. As a result, the exposed LLCC will likely track slowly north-northwestward tonight, followed by a turn toward the west on Saturday. The latest track forecast has been nudged slightly to the right through 36 hours, when it is expected to weaken to a remnant low. Assuming this low survives, it may eventually become an extratropical gale low in the vicinity of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands by day 5. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Effects from tropical storms can and do extend well from the center. Rain bands around the northern and eastern periphery of Lane are still bringing persistent flooding rainfall across parts of the state. In addition, damaging winds and isolated tornados are also possible in these rain bands. Winds will be accelerated over higher terrain, through gaps, and where winds blow downslope. Winds will also be stronger at the upper floors of high rise buildings. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 19.4N 158.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 19.8N 159.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 19.9N 160.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 19.9N 161.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0600Z 20.0N 163.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z 20.7N 166.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0600Z 23.0N 168.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 30/0600Z 27.5N 170.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Houston NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 08-Aug-2019 14:23:35 UTC