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Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number  43...Corrected
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
500 PM HST Fri Aug 24 2018
 
It took awhile...but once the 35 to 40 kt of shear began to 
impact the core convection from Lane, the battle ended quickly. A
very helpful AMSR2 89 GHz microwave pass over Lane at 2259 UTC
showed the circulation center was now mainly comprised of low and
mid level clouds completely detached from the remaining pockets of
deep convection to the northeast of the center. Even a blend of the 
Dvorak final-T and current intensity estimates appeared to be too 
generous, based on the very rapid degradation of the cloud pattern 
and the WSR-88D radar velocities. Settled on 60 kt for the current
intensity. 

The new motion estimate is 315/3, but this is a bit uncertain
until we have more time to examine this change. The low level
circulation of Lane is expected to continue to weaken in the face of
continued strong shear, and driven on a westward track by the low
level flow. The track guidance is in better agreement than I've seen
it in awhile. If it survives long enough, the global models show
Lane may get a new lease on life as an extratropical low over the
Northwest Hawaiian Islands. In any case, we will be happy to get rid
of the tropical cyclone in our vicinity. Until then, people should
be mindful of additional impacts that can still occur until Lane
departs.

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Rainbands around the northern and eastern periphery of Lane can
still bring persistent, flooding rainfall and damaging winds.
Effects from tropical storms can and do extend well from the center.
Winds will be accelerated over higher terrain, through gaps, and
where winds blow downslope. Winds will also be stronger at the
upper floors of high rise buildings.
 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 19.2N 158.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 19.4N 158.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 19.7N 159.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 19.7N 160.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0000Z 19.7N 161.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/0000Z 20.4N 164.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/0000Z 22.0N 166.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  30/0000Z 25.9N 167.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster R Ballard
 
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