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Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  40...Corrected
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
500 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018
 
Hurricane Lane continues to signs of slow weakening due to wind
shear of 20 to 30 knots from the southwest according to the latest
SHIPS and UW-CIMSS analyses. There is no eye evident in satellite
imagery, which is likely a result of these hostile conditions. Radar
reflectivity data from the WSR-88D radars at Molokai and Kohala show
the center is becoming disrupted. The latest satellite intensity
estimates from HFO, JTWC, TAFB and SAB were a unanimous T5.0/90
knots, while the UW-CIMSS ADT was T5.4/100 knots. Based on a blend
of these estimates, the current intensity has been lowered to 95
knots.
 
Lane began to turn northward Thursday evening, and the current
motion is 360/4 knots. Lane continues to be steered toward the north
along the western side of a mid-level ridge, which is located to the
east of Hawaii. The consensus guidance continues to show a northward
motion, or even a motion toward just east of due north, as the ridge
builds south of Lane. The latest track has shifted to the right of
the previous forecast through the next 36 hours. This more closely
follows the latest consensus track guidance. Note that on this
track, Hurricane Lane continues to approach the central Hawaiian
Islands, so there is no reason to believe that anyone is safe in the
warning area. Assuming Lane begins to weaken, and decouple before,
or after, it hits the islands, the cyclone is forecast to come
increasingly under the influence of the low-level easterlies and
begin tracking westward. Again, the exact time when this will occur
remains highly uncertain, and only a small delay in this decoupling
could bring Lane farther north. This would produce considerably
worse conditions over the islands. Even if Lane remains along the
forecast track, significant impacts are expected in the Hawaiian
Islands.
 
Our intensity forecast shows some additional weakening, but
continues to trend on the high side of most of the intensity
guidance through 72 hours due to the resilience Lane has shown
during the past few days. Note that the CIRA analysis of Ocean Heat
Content along the latest forecast track continues to show very high
values during the next 24 hours or so. This will likely help
maintain the intensity longer than might be expected with such
strong shear. By early next week, it is possible that Lane will not
survive the shear, and may become a remnant low by day 5.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
intensity of Lane, and remain prepared for adjustments to the
forecast. Although the official forecast does not explicitly
indicate Lane's center making landfall over any of the islands, this
remains a very real possibility. Even if the center of Lane remains
offshore, severe impacts could still be realized as they extend well
away from the center.
 
2. Lane will pass dangerously close to the central Hawaiian Islands
as a hurricane later today or tonight, and is expected to bring
damaging winds. Terrain effects can cause strong localized
acceleration of the wind through gaps and where winds blow
downslope. These acceleration areas will shift with time as Lane
passes near or over the islands. Winds will also be stronger at the
upper floors of high rise buildings.
 
3. The slow movement of Lane also greatly increases the threat for
prolonged heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall totals. This is
expected to lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding
and landslides over all Hawaiian Islands.
 
4. Life-threatening and damaging surf can be expected along exposed
shorelines with localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a
prolonged period of damaging surf. The prolonged period of large
surf will also likely produce severe beach erosion.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z 18.7N 158.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 19.4N 157.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 20.0N 158.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 20.4N 159.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 20.2N 160.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 20.1N 163.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 21.5N 166.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 25.5N 168.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Houston
 
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