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Hurricane Lane Special Discussion Number  30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
645 PM HST Tue Aug 21 2018
 
Data from the NOAA P-3 aircraft indicate that Lane has strengthened
to a category 5 hurricane, and this special advisory represents an
update to the current intensity, and the forecast intensity through
the first 36 hours. No changes were made to the remainder of the
forecast. 

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Lane is forecast to move dangerously close to the main Hawaiian
Islands as a hurricane later this week, potentially bringing
damaging winds and life-threatening flash flooding from heavy
rainfall anywhere in the state. As Lane is expected to be
slow-moving as it nears the islands, it will produce large and
damaging surf.
 
2. As Lane moves up from the southeast, the earliest potential
threat to land will be for the Big Island, where a Hurricane Warning
is now in effect. Preparations there should be rushed to completion
as tropical-storm force winds are forecast to arrive in the warning
area by late Wednesday or early Thursday. A Hurricane Watch remains
in effect for Maui County, and is now posted for Oahu, with
tropical-storm force winds possibly beginning Thursday or Thursday
night.
 
3. Due to a continued high degree of uncertainty on the forecast
track and intensity of Lane, hurricane impacts could be felt across
any of the Hawaiian Islands. It is too early to predict which, if
any, of the islands are directly impacted. Remember that life
threatening weather conditions can extend well away from the center
of the hurricane.  Interests throughout Hawaii are urged to closely
monitor the progress of Lane during the next few days.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0430Z 14.5N 154.0W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 15.0N 155.0W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 16.0N 156.0W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 17.2N 156.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 18.6N 157.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 21.1N 158.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  26/0000Z 21.5N 161.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  27/0000Z 21.0N 164.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard
 
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