Hurricane LANE (Text)

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  22
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 19 2018
Aircraft from the NOAA Aircraft Operation Center and the U.S. Air
Force Reserves 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron have been
sampling Hurricane Lane this evening. The data provided by these
missions have been invaluable. Based on satellite intensity
estimates ranging from 87 to 102 knots and Lane's poor
representation in satellite imagery, we might have considered
weakening the hurricane. Instead, the aircraft found peak
flight-level and SFMR winds of 113 knots in the northwest
quadrant. In addition, a dropsonde estimated surface wind of 117
knots was also found in the northwest eyewall. Based on these
aircraft observations, we have increased the initial intensity to
110 knots.

The initial motion for this advisory is 275/12 knots. Lane continues
tracking westward along the southern flank of a large subtropical
ridge. There is still quite a bit of spread in track guidance beyond
day 2 as individual models handle the erosion of the western portion
of this ridge differently, due to the forecast of an upper-level
trough digging down northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands later
this week. The latest forecast track through 48 hours is close to
the previous forecast. However, due to overwhelming evidence that
the western end of the ridge will erode from days 3 through 5, we
had to shift the track far to the right. The latest forecast track
remains to the right of the ECMWF, which is far left of the GFS,
HWRF, and consensus models.
The latest intensity forecast has been nudged up slightly compared
with the previous one. This is based on the stronger initial
intensity based on the aircraft, as well as the latest guidance.
Lane will remain over 27-28 degree C waters through the forecast
period. Shear of 10 to 15 knots is expected during the next 12
hours, followed by reduced shear during the 24 to 48 hour time
periods. After that, increasing vertical shear is expected to cause
steady weakening, with Lane possibly becoming a tropical storm by
Day 5. This intensity forecast closely follows the IVCN consensus
Due to the large uncertainty in the future track and intensity of
Lane, all interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to
monitor the future progress of this system. Based on the latest
trends in the forecast, direct impacts on the islands can not be
ruled out. The latest trends in tropical cyclone wind speed
probabilities also suggest that a Tropical Storm Watch may be
needed for some parts of the island chain early this week.
INIT  20/0900Z 13.8N 147.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 13.9N 148.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 14.1N 150.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 14.4N 152.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 14.7N 153.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  23/0600Z 15.9N 156.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  24/0600Z 17.5N 158.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  25/0600Z 20.0N 160.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
Forecaster Houston

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Page last modified: Thursday, 08-Aug-2019 14:23:34 UTC