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Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  20
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
1100 AM HST Sun Aug 19 2018
 
After lacking a distinct eye through the night, Lane regained this
feature near sunrise. However, after a few hours the eye began to
cloud over once again. Nevertheless, this system remains
well-organized this morning, with a concentric convective ring and
good outflow to the north through northeast. Outflow elsewhere is a
bit restricted, a result of the 17 kt of vertical shear noted by
UW-CIMSS. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range
from 6.5/127 kt (PHFO), to 5.0/90 kt (SAB). PTWC estimated 6.0/115
kt, while ADT from UW-CIMSS was 109 kt. This is quite a wide range,
possibly the result of the overnight loss and sudden reappearance of
a distinct eye right around analysis time. Initial intensity is set
at 110 kt for this advisory, representing a slight adjustment upward
using a blend of estimates. 

Initial motion is 280/12 kt as Lane continues tracking just a shade
north of due west along the southern flank of a large subtropical
ridge. A frontal boundary far northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands
is forecast to move southeast as it weakens, eroding the western
portion of the ridge from day 3 and beyond. The spread in track
guidance continues to be rather wide beyond 48 hours as each model
handles this ridge erosion differently. However, consensus guidance
continues to be most helpful. The forecast track was nudged
slightly northward through 36 hours, due to initial motion, but
remains quite close to the previous track from 48 through 96 hours,
following TVCX consensus. Forecast points from 120 hours and beyond
lie between CMCI and ECMWF solutions. GFS remains near the right
edge of the guidance envelope, affecting all associated ensembles. 
A NOAA G-IV aircraft plans to do a synoptic sampling in the
environment around the Hawaiian Islands and Lane later today. The
valuable data collected during this mission will be available to
better initialize the forecast models.
 
The intensity forecast follows the logic of the previous one, only
with a slightly higher initial intensity. Lane will remain over
27-28 degree C waters through the forecast period, with 10 to 20 kt
of vertical shear through most of its track, at least according to
the ECMWF-derived SHIPS run. Gradual weakening is forecast through
the forecast period, closely following FSSE and SHIPS. The
weakening curve lies just above IVCN consensus. Note that the latest
CIRA analysis of Ocean Heat Content shows a local maximum along the
track starting around day 3. If this verifies, Lane may remain
stronger than anticipated beyond day 3.
 
Lane is forecast to pass south of the main Hawaiian Islands
Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing local impacts as it
tracks west-northwestward. Interests in these islands should watch
the progress of Lane closely, since long-range track and intensity
forecast errors can be large.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/2100Z 13.5N 144.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 13.8N 146.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 14.1N 148.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 14.3N 150.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 14.6N 152.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 15.2N 155.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z 16.5N 158.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  24/1800Z 18.2N 161.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Powell
 
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