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Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  18
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 18 2018
 
Lane completely lost its eye in the last visible satellite imagery,
which was available earlier this evening. In addition, microwave
passes from SSMIS at 0339z and AMSU at 0644z indicated the eyewall
appeared to be open on the southwestern side of the system. Vertical
wind shear estimates are 18 knots from the west-southwest according
to the latest SHIPS and UW-CIMSS. This is likely a major culprit in
the weakening of Lane. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates are T5.5/102 knots from SAB, T6.0/115 knots from JTWC and
T6.5/127 knots from PHFO. The most recent ADT from UW-CIMSS is
weaker at 5.7/107 knots. Based on a blend of this guidance, the
latest initial intensity has been adjusted downward slightly to 110
kt for this advisory. Note that a warm spot appears to be developing
in the infrared satellite imagery during the past couple of hours.
 
Lane's initial motion for this advisory is 280/14 kt. A large
subtropical ridge to the north will continue to keep Lane moving
along this same general track, but at a slightly slower forward
speed during the next two days. A shift back toward the
west-northwest should occur from 96 through 120 hours as Lane
approaches the western portion of the ridge. Track guidance shows
some spread beyond 72 hours. The most recent forecast is very
similar to the previous through 72 hours, with a shift to the right
on days 4 and 5. These changes in track were based on nudging toward
HWRF and HSSE, as well as the GFEX and TVCN consensus.
 
The intensity forecast closely follows ICON consensus guidance,
depicting a gradual weakening through 120 hours. SSTs will remain
in the 27 to 28 degrees C range, but with 10 to 15 knots of vertical
wind shear expected through the forecast period, a forecast for
gradual weakening seems realistic at this time. The latest intensity
forecast is close to the previous, except that Lane is kept slightly
stronger on days 4 and 5.
 
Lane is forecast to pass south of the main Hawaiian Islands
Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing local impacts as it
tracks west northwestward. Interests in those islands should watch
the progress of Lane closely, since long-range forecast track and
intensity errors can be large.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0900Z 12.9N 142.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 13.2N 143.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 13.5N 146.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 13.7N 147.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 13.9N 149.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 14.3N 153.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  23/0600Z 15.2N 156.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  24/0600Z 17.0N 160.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Houston
 
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