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Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
200 AM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018

The latest satellite images suggest that Lane is getting better
organized with its cloud pattern now consisting of a central dense
overcast feature and curved bands over the western semicircle.
There is a large spread in the intensity estimates tonight.
All of the Dvorak-based estimates have increased to 3.5/55 kt.
However, an ASCAT pass around 0600 UTC showed maximum winds of only
35 kt.  Since Lane is a compact system, it is possible that the
resolution of ASCAT is not sufficient to capture its maximum winds,
therefore, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt as a compromise of
these data.  It should be noted that this is a low confidence
initial intensity estimate.

Lane is now moving due westward at 10 kt steered by the flow on the
south side of a deep-layer ridge.  The global models all show a
mid- to upper-level trough off the Baja California peninsula
cutting off and moving westward during the next few days.  This
feature will weaken the ridge a little, and that should cause Lane
to make a slight turn to the west-northwest in a couple of days.
The models are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.  Based on this
forecast, Lane is expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin
this weekend.

The environmental conditions appear quite favorable for Lane to
strengthen.  During the next several days, the wind shear near Lane
is expected to be less than 10 kt, humidity values relatively high,
and SSTs sufficently warm.  Therefore, steady or even rapid
strengthening appears likely.  The NHC intensity forecast continues
to lean toward the higher end of the model guidance, and shows Lane
becoming a hurricane in 12 to 24 hours, and a major hurricane within
the next few days.  This forecast is in best agreement with the
HCCA model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 10.4N 126.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 10.6N 128.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 10.9N 131.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 11.4N 133.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 11.8N 136.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  19/0600Z 13.1N 141.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  20/0600Z 14.4N 146.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  21/0600Z 15.1N 150.3W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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