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Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132018
200 AM PDT Sat Aug 11 2018

Kristy has weakened since the last advisory as the system moves
over cooler sea surface temperatures, with the central convection
becoming less organized.  A recent ASCAT overpass indicates that
the maximum winds have decreased to near 40 kt, and that the 34-kt
wind radii are smaller than previously analyzed.  Kristy will
continue to move over cool sea surface temperatures during the
forecast period.  Thus, continued weakening is expected with the
system now forecast to become a remnant low in 36 h or less.

The initial motion is now 345/6.  As Kristy continues to weaken, the
cyclone should make a gradual turn to the northwest as it becomes
shallower and therefore steered by the low- to mid-level flow around
ridging to the north.  Then, as the system becomes a remnant low, a
turn to the west-northwest is expected, with this motion persisting
through the remainder of the forecast period.  The new track
forecast, which is similar to the previous track, lies near the
various consensus models in the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 21.0N 130.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 21.6N 130.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 22.0N 131.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 22.2N 132.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/0600Z 22.5N 133.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/0600Z 23.5N 136.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/0600Z 24.5N 139.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/0600Z 25.5N 142.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

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