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Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132018
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 08 2018

Deep convection associated with Kristy has increased near and to the
east of the center during the past few hours.  However, microwave
images still show that the convective pattern is not symmetric due
to westerly shear associated with a mid- to upper-level low to the
north-northeast of the cyclone.  The satellite intensity estimates
range from 35 to 45 kt, so the initial intensity is again held at 40
kt for this advisory.

Kristy will likely have an opportunity to strengthen some during the
next day or two while it pulls away from the mid- to upper-level low
and remains over relatively warm water.  In about 48 hours, however,
Kristy is expected to cross the 26 degree C isotherm. These cooler
waters along the forecast track and a more stable environment should
end the opportunity for strengthening and result in a gradual
weakening trend.  The intensity models remain quite divergent, with
the SHIPS and LGEM models showing little or no strengthening while
the HWRF model predicts Kristy to reach hurricane intensity.  The
NHC intensity forecast lies between these scenarios and is in best
agreement with the intensity model consensus.  This forecast shows
Kristy becoming a post-tropical cyclone by day 4 when the system is
expected to be over 23 degree C SSTs.

The tropical storm has turned northwestward, with the latest initial
motion estimated to be 315/6 kt.  A turn to the north is expected on
Thursday as Kristy gets drawn toward the larger and stronger
Hurricane John.  The spread in the models remains really large with
the GFS and HWRF models showing Kristy moving northeastward and even
merging with John.  Conversely, the ECMWF and UKMET models show a
northward and then more westward motion when Kristy becomes a weak
and shallow system in 4 to 5 days.  The NHC track forecast has been
adjusted a little to the right, but it remains to the west of the
consensus models in favor of the UKMET and ECMWF solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 15.3N 130.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 16.0N 130.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 16.9N 130.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 18.0N 130.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 19.2N 129.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 21.0N 129.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  13/0000Z 22.5N 130.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  14/0000Z 23.0N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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